New Recommended Practice!

104R-19: Communicating Expected Estimate Accuracy

AACE International, February 22, 2021

Price: $0 (Member) / $100 (Non-Member)

This recommended practice (RP) defines expected estimate accuracy; and describes how the concept of estimate accuracy should be communicated to a stakeholder or decision maker that is interested in understanding the potential variability or predictability that is associated with a particular estimate.

The results of the estimating process are often conveyed as a single value of cost or time. However, since estimates are predictions of an uncertain future, it is recommended that all estimate results should be presented as a probabilistic distribution of possible outcomes in consideration of risk. However, because probabilistic methods are difficult to communicate, its concepts are reduced to an expression called expected estimate accuracy that is a simplified means of communicating uncertainty as a single expression. Discussions of expected estimate accuracy often describe estimate accuracy in terms of +/- percentages that bound the published single estimate value, but too often fail to convey other significant information that is required by an estimate stakeholder to truly assess what the +/- percentages indicate. Worse, rule-of-thumb percentages often fail to reflect the true risk and uncertainty at all.

This RP applies to estimates of both cost and time (duration). Its subject matter deals with the integration of the disciplines of decision and risk management, cost estimating and planning and scheduling within the AACE International community. Where a discussion in the RP focuses on either cost or time specifically, it is noted as appropriate.

This RP is intended to provide guidelines (i.e., not a standard) to be used in conveying the expected accuracy level of an estimate to a stakeholder that are considered to be good practices that can be relied on and that would be recommended for use where applicable. This RP will present an estimate as a probabilistic range of potential values in consideration of risk, discuss the typical shapes of the probability distribution associated with the range of potential values, discuss the concept of estimate contingency, and identify the elements required to convey information about expected estimate accuracy to stakeholders. When referring to cost or duration estimating, this RP focuses on cost or duration estimating for a project or dedicated effort to accomplish a scope of work or activities.

This RP does not discuss the calculation or determination of the variability of the indicated accuracy of an estimate after completion of the associated project or effort (a comparison of an estimate with actual results). When the term estimate accuracy is used in this RP, it is intended to convey expected estimate accuracy.

Take a look inside RP 104R-19 here.

Access RP 104R-19 (login required)

Education Board Looking for Volunteers

We are excited for a new year of online learning module development and are eagerly looking for contributing members to participate in our exciting initiative. As part of your participation with the Education Board’s Online Learning Subcommittee you are able to earn up to 1 CEU per our association’s Volunteer CEU criteria. Additionally your contribution will be recognized on AACE International’s website and in the course material. You may reference this recognition as part of your industry or academic professional development and as part of your work performance evaluations.

Please use the button below to ask any questions or if you are interested in participating.

CFCC Eligibility Requirements Expanded

The Certification Board is pleased to announce the post education professional certification eligibility requirement for the Certified Forensic Claims Consultant (CFCC) examination has been expanded.

Previously, the accepted post education certification or licenses were primarily U.S. based. After several months of researching and studying this issue, the Certification Board CFCC Committee identified at least 19 international post-education professional certifications to be acceptable for those seeking qualification to take the CFCC examination. The full list is listed on our website or here on AACE's Source.

Recognizing the possibility of other acceptable certifications or licenses, the program now allows potential candidates, who hold a post education certification or license not currently on the expanded list, to petition the Certification Board to consider its inclusion. The petitioner must provide sufficient information and a compelling case to support each request and assumes all responsibility for gathering and providing the requisite documentation to the satisfaction of the Certification Board. The online form can be found by clicking here.

If a potential candidate does not have a post education certification or license on the expanded list or holds a certification not acceptable to AACE International, an additional four (4) years of verifiable claims analysis experience is required in lieu of a post education professional certification or license.

All other eligibility requirements remain unchanged. Click here to view all eligibility requirements for CFCC examination.

The Certification Board believes this program modification will provide additional opportunities for qualification by international professionals who want to achieve CFCC certification. If you have any questions or need assistance in applying for any certification examination, please contact us using the button below.

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Tech Talks Reminder

Need another reason to renew your dues? Remember that AACE offers members a free-of-charge opportunity to watch AACE Conference & Expo presentations for your personal continuing education, and if you are AACE certified, also earn CEUs toward recertification. Each presentation will be offered for one week, then it will expire. However, your CEUs earned will remain on your profile. The “Tech Talks" will be offered on Wednesdays for the period of time that our members will be working from home as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We encourage you to engage with your fellow members and to share what resources, both work and home/family resources, that may help others navigate this difficult time.

Tech Talks are available for a fee for non-members.